Kashmir Sentinel: April 1st--May 31st, 2001

Jane's Report wakes up NDA government

KS Correspondent

NEW DELHI, Apr 7: The publishing of the report on the comparative status of the nuclear capabilities of India and Pakistan by the prestigious Jane's Intelligence Review has caused ripples in the political and bureaucratic circles. Fearing censure by its adversaries, the NDA government in post haste has decided to put into action the process for implementing the recommendations of the Group of Ministers' on reforming the national security system. Barely two days after the publication of the Janes' Report, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee directed that the recommendations be placed before the cabinet for formal approval.

Jane's Report says that India has moved at a slower pace in deciding and completing delivery systems, evolving procedures, tactics and doctrine for nuclear use as well as for ensuring effective control over nuclear forces. In all these areas Pakistan has fully implemented the lessons that it has learnt from already established nuclear powers. Pakistan's nuclear forces are controlled by the Army and have been more fully incorporated into the country's overall military strategy. Pakistan has nearly completed development of a solid-fuelled missile that could strike key Indian cities from deep within Pakistan territory. As per a report, carried by a Pakistani newspaper, The News, Pakistan will use its Ghauri series of liquid-fuelled missiles for offensive operations, while the Shaheen series would be retained for defensive purposes. Recently Pakistan conducted a weeklong "PAF Missile Firing Camp 2001" for test-firing of ground to air, surface-to-surface and air-to-air missiles (French-American make) for what it called "providing realistic practical training to air crew and weapon controllers." Speaking at the PAF's Sonmiani firing range, General Musharraf, the military dictator outlined Pakistan's nuclear policy. He said, "we are always out-numbered.. We maintain a minimum deterrence, which we will always maintain." Spelling out three stages of deterrence, he added that minimum deterrence, which could be quantified in comparison to the enemy's strength, should be followed by "ability to threaten enemy's such vulnerable targets which go beyond their tolerance threshold." It would also mean "will and resolve of the force to defend and fight by challenging the enemy," he concluded.

On the contrary, as per Jane's Review India was yet to develop an effective missile-based nuclear deterrent and deploy a missile force in quantity. India's nuclear delivery systems consist of assault aviation Mirage 2000H fighters, which will be supplemented by Sukhoi SU-30MK multi-role fighters, along with a limited number of Prithvi-I and II short-range ballistic missiles and Agni medium-range ballistic missiles. The report adds that none of the nuclear delivery systems possessed by India is capable of providing deterrence against China, it developed the long-range ICBM Agni, to fill the vacuum.

Pakistan, which has been using nuclear capability as an instrument of effective blackmail in the context of proxy war has put in place a command and control system. It has also established the nuclear command authority and the nuclear regulatory authority.

Political Indecisiveness:

Janes Review has attributed India's slow pace to political indecisiveness and nuclear idealism in-built in country's political culture. The report says, "India views nuclear weapons as necessary for their political utility, their ability to bring international prestige and provide deterrence vis-a-vis Pakistan and China". But the political leadership has not fully thought through specifics of nuclear use or doctrine and does not view such weapons as possessing military utility and discounts the possibility of them being used on the battle field, it added.

Contrary to this, Pakistan's nuclear forces are controlled by the Army and have been more fully incorporated into the country's overall military strategy. In the wake of Kargil aggression, the GoI had appointed a review committee. The committee had pointed out that the successive Indian Prime Ministers had failed to take their own colleagues, the major political parties, the chiefs of staff and the Foreign Secretaries into confidence on the nature of Pakistan's nuclear threat and the China-Pakistan nuclear axis. It had recommended that the post of National Security Adviser should be separate from the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister. The committee had suggested that a second line of personnel be also inducted into the system as early as possible and groomed for higher responsibility and that India must bring out a white paper on the Indian nuclear weapons programme.

All this has not been done as yet, leave aside bringing out the Nuclear Doctrine. Political dithering has made India lose out in the field of defence preparedness. The recommendations of the Kargil Review Committee were sidelined. Defence experts have attributed this to the pressure from certain officials on the government. More surprisingly, the Prime Minister is still reluctant to separate the post of National Security Adviser from Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister. Concentration of powers in the hands of extra constitutional authorities has made National Security Council a defunct body.

Task Force Recommendations:

With Janes Report coming, on the heels of Tehelka expose, the NDA government does not want to convey an impression that it is compromising National Security by sitting on the recommendations of four task forces set up by a Group of Ministers (GoM), set up in May 2000. The task force was created to study the recommendations of Kargil Review Committee. The four task forces were to study intelligence, defence management, internal security and border management and address critiques made of India's security establishment in the Kargil report.

Main recommendations, if accepted will mean:

1) India will have a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), who will command a new intelligence service, the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), which in turn will be commanded by a Three Star Inspector General of Army. CDS will also get the control of the country's nuclear arsenal, which essentially would be through the land delivery methods.

2) In recognition of the stellar role it has been playing in counter-insurgency operations, the Rashtriya Rifles, raised as a paraamilitary force in 1990, is to be designated as a part of the regular army and will rank as a 'regiment'. Its manpower and budget provisions will continue as before. State-level joint intelligence task forces are to be set up, and specific proposals have been made to upgrade the capabilities of police anti-terrorist units. The J&K Police Special Operations Group (SOG) has been held out as an example of the kinds of anti-terrorist units that must now evolve.

3) The recommendations on intelligence by the task force, which included Governor Girish Chander Saxena, K Raghunath, former Foreign Secretary, MK Narayanan, former IB Chief, PP Srivastva, former Special Secretary Home, B.Raman, former Additional Secretary RAW etc. indicate a desire for a thorough revamping of the intelligence services.

The suggestions would mean:

a) The IB will have complete responsibility for internal security operations and its Director would be given wide and autonomous powers. The IB would now have a formal charter and would be the nodal organisation for counter-terrorist and counter-intelligence work. It has also been tasked with ensuring the security of information systems. IB has also been asked to prepare country's first dedicated police computer network and terrorism database. Another change suggested in IB networking is that the gathering and generation of intelligence and its analysis will be separated. IB will also be empowered to conduct covert work relevant to its new charter, including deep penetration operations abroad.

b) RAW will be a lean organisation now, with more focused work in gathering external intelligence. SSB personnel will be inducted into ITBP. Responsibility for conducting transborder operations will now fall on the new DIA. The DIA will also participate in intelligence support groups, run jointly with the IB and RAW to provide coordinated information to Army Corps Commanders in areas where the Armed Forces Special Powers Act is in force. Governor Saxena says that "the concept of an intelligence community" will lead to greater harmonisation among the different intelligence agencies.

c) The task force report underlines the need for reviving Joint Interrogation Centres in States like J&K. The JIC concept had proved extremely useful in J&K for information-sharing among different agencies. Due to political expediency it was wound up in 1996 by the Farooq Abdullah Govt.

d) The Arun Singh-led report on defence restructuring has rejected the Army demand for overall control over the civilian administration in disturbed areas. The paramilitary forces and intelligence officials had resisted this idea mooted sometime back in 1998.

The Prospect:

If the recommendations are finally given stamp of approval by the cabinet in six months from now there will be a new national security system. During Deve Gowda led UF government also, late Inderjit Gupta, then Home Minister had suggested a workable scheme for deploiticisation of the post of DG Police and chief secretary at State government levels. The move was resisted by many state chief ministers, who wanted their own cronies for the posts. In many cases, intelligence officials have been frequently protesting about the unwillingness of the State governments to act on specific information on the presence of terrorists. The new National Security System, even if put to implementation would leave much to be desired. National Security Doctrine can be effective only in a new political culture, where political class and the bureaucrats would have greater accountability and security agencies enjoy wide-ranging autonomy in dealing with security threats, free from hassles of political interference.