Resentment builds up against continuing ceasefire

JAMMU, Apr 30
 

Role of Hizb:

Vajpayee, while announcing unilateral ceasefire had hinted that the terrorist outfit Hizbul Mujahideen had been neutralized. Since every other outfit had rejected the ceasefire gesture, neutralised Hizb group would help in bringing down the violence. There is hard evidence which points that Centre's claims on having neutralised Hizb were untrue. Since ceasefire came into force, more than a score of attacks have been staged by Majid Dar's Hizb. Nearly fifty cadres of Hizb have been killed in retaliatory action by the security forces. Recently intelligence and security agencies have found evidence that Hizbul Mujahideen was involved in subversive acts outside J&K and was organising training camps for Muslims in cities like Agra, Aligarh, Kanpur and Shahjahanpur. Police also linked Hizbul Mujahideen to the abortive attempt to bomb North Block. 

If even Hizb was not reciprocating the ceasefire gesture, against whom was this ceasefire aimed at? Home Minister sprang a surprise in Lok Sabha on February 17 by stating that there was no ceasefire in Kashmir but only non-initiation of combat operations against terrorists. "We did not use the word ceasefire because such a term implies reaching an understanding with the other side," he added.

Pak rejects peace diplomacy:

How Pakistan has responded to India's ceasefire diplomacy has been answered by the annual report of the Ministry of External Affairs (March, 2001). It says that Pakistan has stepped up its sponsoring of cross-border terrorism in J&K and other parts of India by "qualitative improvement in weapons, communication equipment and training given to terrorist groups such as Jaish-e-Muhammed, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. It also accused it of pursuing its negative policy, specially manifested in its sponsorship of cross-border terrorism and its vicious anti-India propaganda. There has also been increased support by Islamabad to infiltration attempts by Pakistan--based terrorist groups. The report maintained that the Prime Minister's Ramazan ceasefire announcement was "sought to be eroded through on escalation of violence" and cited attacks on Red Fort, Srinagar Airport, Dr Abdullah and threats to attack the office of the Prime Minister. Describing Pak's announcement of "maximum restraint" and "troop withdrawal" as self-serving measures which did not address India's concerns relating to cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan. It added Pakistan "continues to support cross-border infiltration and terrorist operations in India". The report also referred to the incitement of Sikh pilgrims visiting Pakistan by ISI.

Intelligence agencies also unearthed a conspiracy recently, by Lashkar-e-Toiba to once again storm the Red Fort. In a major breakthrough on April 18, the STF of U.P. Police gunned down 3 Pak militants affiliated to Jaish-e-Mohammed. Referring to Pakistan's patronage of sponsoring terrorism, The Friday Times (April 8), the Pakistani weekly wrote that Pakistan was making no attempts to rein ultras. It added that "irresponsible statements by various (militant) groups have served to deprive Pakistan of the element of plausible deniability".

Ceasefire diplomacy loses credibility:

Cease-fire diplomacy has failed in its primary objective of engaging terrorist groups, Hurriyat and Pakistan. It has derailed the major security initiatives undertaken by security forces after the abortive July ceasefire. Security situation has worsened all over in J&K. Violence graph has gone up four-fold. In the 139 days since ceasefire the fidayeen attacks have registered six times increase (17:3). The civilian (384:358) and security forces (200:171) killings show an upward trend. Killings of political workers have gone up three times (36:11). The terrorists have been targeting police personnel. In the past four months twent nine of them were killed. In the same period prior to ceasefire there were only six killings. The militants' killings have gone down by 45 percent from 734 to 387 out of these more than 160 militants (97 Lashkar) were killed in retaliatory action. A comparison with 1999-2000 also indicates level of deterioration in situation on ground. Between November 28, 1999 and March 29, 2000 there were only 257 incidents of violence. This year, in same period there were 1156 incidents.

Summing up the ground situation in Kashmir, the noted security expert Mr Brahma Chellaney writes, "India's hold over Kashmir has never looked more tenuous than today. India's unity, territorial integrity and decision-making freedom are under pressure. The four 'K's--Kargil, Kandhar, Kashmir and now kickbacks--have earned Vajpayee an unenviable place in history...Kashmir is an unending story of blunders under Vajpayee--all in the name of people, and all undermining India's hold over the Valley. For the first time, the army is at the receiving end in Kashmir. If the policies since the Lahore Declaration are repeated for another two years, India will certainly hand the Jehadies a victory on Kashmir. 

Mr P.S. Jha another columnist observes, "Despite killing the top commander of LeT, Salahuddin Ayubi, the Vajpayee government is on the verge of achieving the near impossible. it has all but delivered the Kashmir movement for self-determination into the hands of the Lashkar".

Terrorists' Regroup:

Terrorist have utilised the cessation of combat operations and thinning of troops by government to regroup and re-enter the urban areas. Militancy has now become an overground phenomenon. On December 22, the armed activists of Hizb addressed an open press conference outside Jama Masjid after Friday prayers. They fired shots in the air and shouted pro-Pak slogans. Since then the armed activists of Hizb and Lashkar have regularly appeared in public, often at Friday prayers' gatherings.

All terrorists groups are now operating in co-ordination. Lashkar and Jaish groups have entrenched themselves in Srinagar city, where even Al-Umar, Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen and J&K Islamic Front have resurfaced. Terrorists have been operating in Bollywood style in the summer capital. The Police recently unearthed a network of hitmen. As per police a group of 22 hitmen had been organised to eliminate civilian and Police targets in Srinagar. The hitmen, mostly surrendered and released militants had fanned out in subgroups of two or three each. Hitmen, as per these reports were being paid Rs 1000 for hitting a civilian target and double the amount for killing a policemen or soldier. These hitman have been moving on two-wheelers, hitting the target and escaping in Bollywood style. Reports indicating that renegade militants were joining back militant ranks appeared last month. Both money and muscle power/threats were being employed by ISI to enlist them. Renegades were being preferred because they were well-trained in handling of sophisticated weapons and explosives.

Militant Ranks Swell:

As a result of ceasefire, there has been sudden swell in the ranks of militants, both local and foreign mercenaries. There is increase in concentration of foreign mercenaries in Kokernag--Daksum, Traal, Bandipore, Tang Marg and Ganderbal-Safapur-Kangan belts. Locals observe that never before during the past ten years have they seen mercenaries in such numbers. The stoppage of night patrolling has allowed the local people to buy peace with ultras. In Lolab, Handwara, Rajawar and upper parts of Kishtwar, Poonch, Rajouri it is the writ of the militants which runs. Many locals are joining the militancy. Earlier the parents were resisting and many even dared to refuse food and shelter to militants. With no security cover, these people have become vulnerable. Militants have created new hideouts by constructing bunkers and trenches even at higher attitudes.

Of late, ISI has concentrated on recruiting locals in large numbers. Foreign mercenaries are operating as many as 36 training camps in different parts of J&K for imparting religious indoctrination and armed training to local youth. Many of foreign mercenaries operating in the state have acquired passports to pass as bonafide visitors. An intelligence agency in March identified seven Pak nationals, who have been installed in some mosques as preachers. These Moulvis who sneaked in recently, have been assigned the task of indoctrinating local youth to join Jehadi campaign. 

There has also been mushroom growth of Madrassas in Kashmir and hilly belts of Jammu province during the past few months. Here under the garb of religious education youths were being motivated to join the armed struggle against India. Many parents, whose wards have crossed over to PoK, have managed to seek passports and visited Pakistan.

Recently six groups of militants infiltrated into J&K. Of these, three belonged to Lashkar, two to Hizb and one to Al Badr. These groups, as per official sources, carried bags full of arms and ammunition. More than 1000 militants, most of them foreign mercenaries, have been brought to the launching pads in Kupwara, Uri, Bandipore, Poonch and Rajouri sectors to infiltrate into the state, reports added. Alarmed over high rate of infiltration a senior military operations general flew in to convey South Block's concern to the then 16 Corps commander, Lt Gen. A.S. Khanna. Ironically Lt. Gen .Khanna had claimed on January 15 that jawans' hard work had restored normalcy in the state and, "it is now for the politicians and diplomats to do rest of the job".

Ferocity in Attacks:

The ferocity in the fidayeen attacks has also increased and every wing of security forces is being attack. The fidayeen members have escaped after inflicting serious damage on personnel of security forces. The prolonged encounters they engage in have alarmed security forces. The purpose who lower down the moral of the jawans and reduce the credibility of the security forces in civilian population. The other objective is to show that the army was battle-filmed and cassettes are then shown to motivate people to join fidayeen squads. As per official reports, presently there are 160 fidayeen members operating in the state.

Upgradation:

Terrorists have also upgraded communications system and weaponry. They are using e-mail to send and receive instructions/information to and from their patrons across the border. Trained experts work under assumed names and devise coded messages, which can be understood only by the militants or separatists familiar with the coded language. Terrorists use purely religious vocabulary or commercial terms making the task of security officials frustrating. The Minister of State for Home, Mr V. Rao informed Rajya Sabha on December 20 that militants were in possession of Stinger missiles, and attacks on aircrafts/helicopters could not be ruled out.

Pro-India Elements:

In the early months after ceasefire the terrorists have been eliminating sources of the security forces to demolish the intelligence network of government and tilt the balance of terror. Death rate of sources has tripled since ceasefire. To instil terror in the population unsympathetic to them, militants have been inflicting barbarities reminiscent of medieval ages. In scores of cases victims have been slaughtered and burnt alive. In many cases limbs like tongues, ears, noses, hands and legs have been chopped off and eyes gouged out. Lady SPOs are the latest targets of terrorists. Till March 21 nearly three hundred pro-India elements have been gunned down by the militants. On March 13, Lashkar-e-Toiba threatened to execute those who took up contract work for MES or ASC wings of the army.

With terrorists on the prowl, cadres of the mainstream organisations have been coerced into submission. On February, 75 year old Wali Mohd, NC activist was dragged out of his home in Sadal Magam and executed infront of members of his family. Conducting Panchayat elections in worsening security scenario made NC workers more vulnerable. Eight people, who had filed nomination papers or had taken office in States since aborted local body elections have been shot dead. More and more NC men have been issuing paid ads or Ishtehar-e-Latalukat in local dailies, disowning any association with elections or NC. At least five hundred NC activists have so far announced their resignation from the party. Prior to ceasefire dozens of NC activists would come to occupy the position of a Block President killed by militants. This kind of fear had earlier been witnessed only in 1989-90.

Pro-Pak Euphoria:

What has caused serious concern in security circles is that local protests have been staged against the killings of Pak nationals. More than six-thousand people protested over the "delay" in handing over the dead bodies of six Lashkar terrorists killed in abortive attack on Srinagar Airport on January 16. It is a wholly new development. Locals also accompanied a Lashkar squad when it attacked PCR in Srinagar. There have been as many as 32 major public protests in two months, a phenomenon not seen during the past few years. 

Ceasefire has allowed terrorists and their overgound sympathisers to assert their influence over civil society once again. The general impression is India has succumbed to international pressure and is fatigued and people believe Indian capitulation is imminent. Geelani has emerged as the rallying point of the separatist sentiment and the terrorist groups. His supporters have been yelling during public protests, "Lashkar se nataa kya, la illaha illalla' and 'Jeeway Jeweway Pakistan", Geelani has been projecting himself, of late, more as member of Saudi-Arabia based world Islamic League, rather than as that of Hurriyat.

Minority Killings:

The terrorists have been idulging in brutal atrocities against the Hindu community. On April 22 in village Hicor in Kishtwar area, two women Vargi D/o Paras Ram and Hardevi wife of Prem Nath had gone to collect firewood in the forest. Two armed militants after overpowering them outraged their modesty. Later one of the victims was hanged to death from the tree and threw away the other from the mountain after pumping bullet in her body.

Nationalist Concern:

There is growing concern in the country that ceasefire decision is pushing country to a dead end. Mr G. Parthasarthy said, "these Jehadis have also utilized the moratorium on offensive operations to muster local support and threaten and intimidate the human assets of the security forces'. Manoj Joshi, who specialises on defence affairs commented, "The bigger problem seems to be the mindset of the military and police leadership, which does not apply its mind to the professional consequences of the politico-administrative decisions, it endorses. In the case of the ceasefire, it is apparent that no one thought through all the consequences of asking the Army and police to halt combat operations and their checking operations on the highways. This has enabled the militants to move around freely across the state, while the army remains in camps. Before putting the Army units in such an invidious position, the authorities should have provided some quick-fixes by way of preparing these camps as defensive redoubts."

The Prospect:

With formation commanders also expressing apprehension on continuing the ceasefire and not countering Jehadi agenda through immediate steps, review of Kashmir situation has started in South Block. As per reports, in one of the meetings Army in J&K has got nod for surgical strikes against Lashkar and Jaish groups on the basis of hard intelligence.

At the beginning also the proponents of ceasefire had roughshod the nationalist concern that unilateral cessation of operations would undermine the security apparatus and bring in no real or diplomatic dividends in short to medium-term. Ceasefire protagonists had drawn unrealistic analogies with Oslo process without looking at what happened to all the diplomatic agreements on the ground. All eyes are now focussed to how Vajpayee government responds to extending the ceasefire, which ends later this month.